2010 Summer of Change

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from left to right: LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Stoudemire
There are three things that I have learned so far this summer.  One, Soccer still sucks.  Yes, I was watching the United States play their games, but not going crazy like the drunks at the bars who just want to get on TV.  I’ve come the conclusion that this country sucks at Soccer (it’s not Football) and the referees don’t want to see the United States succeed.  Two, Toy Story 3 is the best movie to see this summer.  Not a crappy re-make or a high budget film will dethrone what Disney and Pixar have created with one of the best trilogies of all-time.  Yes, I said it.  And three, no one knows what the hell the top free agents of the NBA will do this summer.
To help ease the suspense I will settle once and for all what I believe the NBA’s 10 best free agents should do.  Not believing that three of them will end up on one team, but at least two will be on the same team.  Here’s the list from 10 to 1.
10 – F David Lee

This guy is a double-double machine.  The Knicks were reluctant to give him a big contract last season as was everyone with cap space last year.  Funny how it will still work out for him.  He could have shut it down since he didn’t get his big contract, but he kept working hard and will get rewarded.  The Knicks have plenty of space to keep him, but they have bigger fish to catch.  Lee will find a nice place to land and have the contract he deserves.

Likely destination: New Jersey Nets
9 – G Ray Allen
It’s amazing how one game in the NBA Finals can instantly make you a hot commodity.  Unfortunately it will hurt him in the long run because he seemed to have worn himself out after Game 2.  He won’t get a max contract, but teams in need of a big shooter will have him high on their lists.  Boston will make an effort to keep him, but can they ultimately afford him?  He will be the first of the “Big Three” to leave beantown.  Will he ever come close to another ring is another matter.
Likely destination: Chicago Bulls
8 – F Carlos Boozer
He took a lot of heat when he bolted Cleveland for Utah.  Now he is being shown the door with no chance of being brought back to Salt Lake City.  The Jazz would’ve loved it if Boozer had opted out of his contract last year, but he wasn’t going to leave 16 million dollars.  He was going to be one of the top 3 free agents available last summer, but he is now on the back burner in 2010.  He can still rebound like a man possessed, but is susceptible to the injury bug.  Detroit would’ve grabbed him last year, but doesn’t have enough cap space this year.  He will still land in a comfortable place.
Likely destination: Dallas Mavericks
7 – F Paul Pierce
The reason Pierce isn’t any higher is because of the likely hood he leaves Boston.  He is a talented albeit streaky All-Star, but he has a championship ring.  A lot in his case will depend on if head coach Doc Rivers returns to coach the team.  Boston might have a better chance of bringing back Ray Allen if Doc decides to stay, but Pierce is priority number one.  If he decides to opt-out all hell will break loose in the front office.  Ultimately I don’t see Pierce leaving 16 million dollars like Boozer didn’t last year.  
Likely destination: Boston Celtics
6 – G Joe Johnson
This is where I think it could get interesting.  Johnson is a great play-maker and ball-handler.  It showed in his time in Atlanta as they slowly made their way back to contention.  Nonetheless Johnson also showed that he isn’t much of a team leader with Atlanta’s poor showing in the playoffs this past year.  He has two likely places to land.  One is New York and the other Miami.  New York’s head coach Mike D’Antoni helped to start up Johnson’s career in Phoenix and Miami will Dwayne Wade most likely to lead the show.  The Clippers seem appealing to him for whatever reason, but this is the most intriguing guy to watch besides LeBron.
Likely destination: New York Knicks
5 – F Chris Bosh
For Bosh it would help both him and Toronto out if Bosh were dealt in a sign and trade.  Toronto gets some value for him and Bosh gets the max contract he’s coveted.  However, those possibilities are limited.  New York and New Jersey have nothing to offer.  Miami has only Wade and the Clippers will not mortgage whatever future they have for one guy.  That leaves Chicago and they are willing to take their chances on him leaving without a trade.  Bosh is a one of a kind forward who can spread the floor and post-up against smaller defenders.  Injuries have been an issue for him of late, but he is a missing piece to a lot of teams puzzles.
Likely destination: Chicago Bulls
4 – F Dirk Nowitzki
It came as no surprise that Dirk was planning on opting out of his 20 million dollars for one more year.  With a new CBA pending he like everyone else is going to take advantage of the salary cap structure the way it is setup now.  Does that mean he will leave Dallas?  Maybe.  Miami wouldn’t look too bad with Wade and Nowitzki being paired.  How about a Steve Nash reunion in Phoenix.  New York wouldn’t mind having another shooter to their offense.  The possibilities are limitless in his case, but he has shown loyalty to the Mavericks and it would uncharacteristic for him to just show his back to them now.  Dallas has made many efforts to surround him with talent and this will be the final chance to get it right.
Likely destination: Dallas Mavericks

3 – F Amare Stoudemire
He’s been the story of trade rumors for two years now and he has apparently had enough.  Phoenix is ready to start a new without him and after his suspect play for half of the 2009 season, it won’t be a total loss in Phoenix’s eyes.  New York and Miami are the only two suitors for this unorthodox power forward.  Mike D’Antoni was his coach in Phoenix when he first arrived in the NBA.  D’Antoni would love to bring back those high scoring days to the Garden with Johnson and Stoudemire.  Miami needs a side kick desperately for Dwayne Wade should he stay.  Stoudemire would be the perfect wing man for Wade in the fast break.  Like Johnson, Stoudemire holds the keys to two franchises.  Does he go with what he knows or try a new approach to winning a championship?  
Likely destination: New York Knicks

2 – G Dwayne Wade
The way everything has setup so far is that Wade will be without a partner.  Miami has sacrificed so much in salary and effort to lure one of the other top free agents to play with Dwayne Wade.  Wade has now put himself into a corner of sorts.  Saying that he plans to stay in Miami if they can get another star player here.  Since it has setup to be no one coming to Miami, what is Wade to do?  Miami has the upper hand, but there isn’t much to show for a team that has thrown away everything since winning the title back in 2006.  Pat Riley should retire immediately if this scenario plays out.
Likely destination: LA Clippers

1 – F LeBron James
And now the million dollar question is about to be answered.  Where will LeBron go?  New York has been waiting it seems like since LeBron was a sophomore in high school for this.  Miami will desperately need a star to be paired with Wade.  New Jersey wants to build for the future in Brooklyn.  The Clippers would be happy to settle with him over Wade, but it won’t matter for them.  But it would be ludicrous for any of these teams to think that signing three max guys let alone two would guarantee you a championship.  With that said the Chicago Bulls played this perfectly.  They have the point guard in Derek Rose.  Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson provide the rebounding.  If you bring in Ray Allen and Chris Bosh to provide the backup to LeBron you have yourself a perfect pitch to acquire the ultimate prize.
Likely destination: Chicago Bulls
I don’t consider this to be at all what will happen in the next month, but rather an observation.  I’ve seen enough off-seasons to know that most likely these players will stay put for the money over everything else, but it doesn’t hurt to think big.  Remember, if they bolt for other teams, they leave an extra year and 30 million dollars on the table.  Tell me that won’t creep into the back of their minds when it’s decision time.

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